Is the 12-day Israel-Iran war really over? Who profited?

From left, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and US President Donald Trump

🧭 1. Background: From full-scale fighting to a “fragile ceasefire”

In mid-June 2025, the Middle East was once again caught in a tangle of fire and gunpowder. After years of proxy wars and propaganda wars, Israel and Iran faced off in a direct conflict for the first time, which quickly escalated into a "three-way war" involving the United States.

What Trump calls the "12-Day War" may also be the beginning of dramatic geopolitical changes in the coming years.

2. What did Israel get?

✅ 1. Tactical victory: long-range strike capability verification

For the first time, Israel crossed the "red line" and successfully struck the core nuclear facilities around Tehran - Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz. This is not only a military victory, but also a strategic declaration:

• Demonstrate long-range airstrike and infiltration capabilities ;

• Prove that Israel can launch large-scale military operations on its own without relying on the United States ;

• Severe damage to Iran’s nuclear program’s integrated above-ground and underground network .

✅ 2. Political bonus: Netanyahu’s diplomatic capital

Netanyahu’s government “appears decisive, tough, and preemptive” in domestic and international opinion. He successfully transformed Israel’s defensive actions into a legitimate propaganda of “preventive self-defense.”

❗ Remaining issues:

• Failure to destroy core capabilities of Iran’s nuclear program (such as technical teams and equipment recovery mechanisms);

• Trump publicly denounced it as "going too far," showing the rift between Israel and the United States;

• The international community is divided over the legality of the attack, and the diplomatic fallout is still unfolding.

3. Did Iran really defend itself?

✅ 1. Regime stability: The political system has not been shaken

Although the Iranian regime was hit, it quickly restored order. Although the missile strike on the US military base in Qatar did not cause major casualties to the US military, it became an important symbol of Iran's ability to strike back.

✅ 2. Post-war discourse power: turning to the diplomatic battlefield

Iranian officials stressed that they are "fully capable of rebuilding their nuclear program" and, with the help of the international community's attention, turned to Europe for contact. Iran has made it clear that it hopes to rebuild a monitoring mechanism under the leadership of Europe to prevent itself from becoming a bombing target again.

❌ Serious losses:

• At least three core nuclear facilities were damaged, and the IAEA said "the Fordow underground system may be seriously damaged";

• Facing an escalation in the joint US-Israel military threat;

• There are still "ambiguous clauses" in the ceasefire agreement, which makes it difficult to serve as a long-term security guarantee.

4. What did Trump and the United States get?

✅ 1. Stop the escalation of conflict: avoid falling into a full-scale war

Trump intervened in time before the conflict escalated and led a ceasefire. He publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Israel's "mistaken attack", reflecting his desire to "win control rather than expand the conflict."

✅ 2. Enhance the image of regional mediation

Through real-time calls and public intervention on "Truth Social", Trump portrayed himself as the "protagonist at the Middle East negotiating table", which added points to his 2026 election layout.

❗ Unstable income:

• The security situation at US bases in the Middle East has deteriorated;

• Rare cracks appear in US-Israel alliance;

• If Iran's nuclear program is not completely ended, the next round of conflict will most likely involve the United States again.

🌍 5. Europe’s role and possible window of intervention

Although this round of conflict is mainly led by the United States and Israel, Europe has gradually emerged as a diplomatic buffer:

• 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 The three nations' attempts to stop the bombing through diplomacy before the war failed;

• EU representative Kaja Kallas is considered by Iran as a credible neutral party;

• Iran hinted that "Europe is the only way to save the legitimacy of its nuclear program."

“If there is any possibility of peace in the Middle East, it may have to start from Paris, Berlin or Brussels, not Washington or Jerusalem.”
— Ioannis Kotoulas, lecturer at the University of Athens

🔮 6. Future direction: peace, or another countdown?

Although the ceasefire agreement is currently in effect, its "fragility" is visible to the naked eye:

Two prospects:

📌 Conclusion: Is this war over?

"What's ended is the fighting, not the conflict itself."
- Ali Ansari, Iran expert at the University of St Andrews

• Israel won a military campaign but lost some diplomatic space ;

• Iran has retained its regime and some nuclear capabilities, but its nuclear program remains uncertain ;

• The United States has temporarily stabilized the situation, but faces the risk of "an even bigger fireball next time" ;

• Europe may be the only force that can create a new situation in the triangle between the United States, Israel and Iran .